FREE ELECTRONIC LIBRARY - Books, dissertations, abstract

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 6 | 7 ||

«Robert Rohde1, Judith Curry2, Donald Groom3, Robert Jacobsen3,4, Richard A. Muller1,3,4, Saul Perlmutter3,4, Arthur Rosenfeld3,4, Charlotte Wickham5, ...»

-- [ Page 8 ] --

We tested the method by applying it to the GHCN data based from 7280 stations used by the NOAA group. However, we used the GHCN raw data base without the “homogenization” procedures that were applied by NOAA which included adjustments for documented station moves, instrument changes, time of measurement bias, and urban heat island effects, for station moves. Rather, we simply cut the record at time series gaps and places that suggested shifts in the mean level. Nevertheless, the results that we obtained were very close to those obtained by NOAA using the same data and their full set of homogenization procedures. Our results did differ, particularly in recent years, from the analyses reported by the other two groups (NASA GISS and HadCRU). In the older periods (1860 to 1940), our statistical methods allow us to significantly reduce both the statistical and spatial uncertainties in the result, and they allow us to suggest meaningful results back to 1800. We note that we have somewhat lower average temperatures during the period 1880-1930 than found by the prior groups, and significantly lower temperatures in the period 1850 to 1880 than had been deduced by the HadCRU group.

We also see evidence suggesting that temperature variability on the decadal time scale is lower now than it was in the early 1800s. One large negative swing, around 1820, coincides with both the eruption of Mt. Tambora and the Dalton Minimum in solar activity.

In another paper, we will report on the results of analyzing a much larger data set based on a merging of most of the world’s openly available digitized data, consisting of data taken at over 39,000 stations, more than 5 times larger than the data set used by NOAA.


We are very grateful to David Brillinger for his guidance, key suggestions, and many discussions that helped lead to the averaging method presented in this paper. This work was done as part of the Berkeley Earth project, organized under the auspices of the Novim Group (www.Novim.org). We thank many organizations for their support, including the Lee and Juliet Folger Fund, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the William K. Bowes Jr. Foundation, the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (created by Bill Gates), the Ann and Gordon Getty Foundation, the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, and three private individuals (M.D., N.G. and M.D.). More information on the Berkeley Earth project can be found at www.BerkeleyEarth.org.


1. Arguez, Anthony, Russell S. Vose, 2011: The Definition of the Standard WMO Climate Normal: The Key to Deriving Alternative Climate Normals. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 699–704.

2. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones (2006), Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.

3. Cressie, Noel. “The Origins of Kriging.” Mathematical Geology, Vol. 22, No. 3, 1990.

4. David R. Easterling, Briony Horton, Philip D. Jones, Thomas C. Peterson, Thomas R. Karl, David E.

Parker, M. James Salinger, Vyacheslav Razuvayev, Neil Plummer, Paul Jamason and Christopher K.

Folland. “Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends for the Globe” Science. Vol. 277 no. 5324 pp. 364-367.

5. Davis, R. A., T. C. M. Lee, and G. A. Rodriguez-Yam, 2006: “Structural break estimation for nonstationary time series models.” J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 101, 223–239.

6. Easterling, D. R. & Wehner, M. F. (2009) “Is the climate warming or cooling?” Geophys. Res. Lett.

36, L08706.

7. Folland, C. K., et al. (2001), Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861, Geophys.

Res. Lett., 28(13), 2621–2624, doi:10.1029/2001GL012877.

8. Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science.213.4511.957

9. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and Mki. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.

10. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev.

Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.

11. Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys.

Res., 92, 13345-13372, doi:10.1029/JD092iD11p13345.

12. Hinkley, D. V. (1971), “Inference about the change-point from cumulative sum tests,” Biometrika, 58 3, 509-523.

13. Jones, P. D., P. Ya. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W.-C. Wang and T. R. Karl, Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature, 347, 169-172, 1990.

14. Jones, P. D., and A. Moberg (2003), Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001, J. Clim., 16, 206–23.

15. Jones, P.D., T.M.L. Wigley, and P.B. Wright. 1986. Global temperature variations between 1861 and

1984. Nature322:430-434.

16. Journel, A. G. Fundamentals of geostatistics in five lessons. American Geophysical Union, 1989; 40 pages.

17. Klein Tank, A. M. G., G. P. Können, 2003: Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe, 1946–99. J. Climate, 16, 3665–3680.

18. Krige, D.G, A statistical approach to some mine valuations and allied problems at the Witwatersrand, Master's thesis of the University of Witwatersrand, 1951.

19. L. V. Alexander, X. Zhang, T. C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B. Gleason, A. M. G. Klein Tank, M. Haylock, D. Collins, B. Trewin, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Tagipour, K. Rupa Kumar, J. Revadekar, G. Griffiths, L.

Vincent, D. B. Stephenson, J. Burn, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet, M. Taylor, M. New, P. Zhai, M.

Rusticucci, and J. L. Vazquez-Aguirre (2006) “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation,” Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 111, D05109.

20. Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Fasullo, John T.; Hu, Aixue; Trenberth, Kevin E., (2011) Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change. 2011/09/18/online

21. Menne M.J., C.N. Williams Jr., and R.S. Vose (2009), The United States Historical Climatology Network Monthly Temperature Data – Version 2. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 993-1007

22. Menne, M.J., and C.N. Williams, Jr. (2009), Homogenization of temperature series via pairwise comparisons. J. Climate, 22, 1700–1717.

23. Miller, Rupert (1974), “The Jackknife – A review,” Biometrika, v. 61, no. 1, pp. 1-15.

24. Muller, Richard A, Judith Curry, Donald Groom, Robert Jacobsen, Saul Perlmutter, Robert Rohde, Arthur Rosenfeld, Charlotte Wickham, Jonathan Wurtele (submitted) “Earth Atmospheric Land Surface Temperature and 1 Station Quality” JGR.

25. Oke, T.R. (1982), The energetic basis of the urban heat island. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, V. 108, no. 455, p. 1-24.

26. Oppenheimer, Clive (2003). "Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815". Progress in Physical Geography 27 (2): 230– 259.

27. Page, E. S. (1955), “A test for a change in a parameter occurring at an unknown point,” Biometrika, 42, 523-527.

28. Parker, D. E., (1994) “Effects of changing exposure of thermometers at land stations,” International Journal of Climatology, v. 14, no. 1, pp 1-31.

29. Peterson, T.C., and R.S. Vose, 1997: An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78 (12), 2837-2849.

30. Peterson, Thomas C., Katharine M. Willett, and Peter W. Thorne (2011) “Observed changes in surface atmospheric energy over land,” GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L16707, 6 PP.

31. Quenoille, M. H. (1949), “Approximate tests of correlation in time-series,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 11, p. 68-84.

32. Smith and Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997). J. Climate, 18, 2021–2036.

33. Smith, T. M., et al. (2008), Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283-2293.

34. Stothers, Richard B. (1984). "The Great Tambora Eruption in 1815 and Its Aftermath". Science 224 (4654): 1191–1198.

35. Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F.

Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden and P. Zhai, 2007: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.

Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

36. Tsay, R, S.. (1991) Detecting and Modeling Non-linearity in Univariate Time Series Analysis.

Statistica Sinica 1:2,431-451.

37. Tukey, J.W. (1958), “Bias and confidence in not quite large samples”, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 29, 614.

38. Vose, C. N. Williams Jr., T. C. Peterson, T. R. Karl, and D. R. Easterling (2003), An evaluation of the time of observation bias adjustment in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2046, doi:10.1029/2003GL018111

39. Wagner, Sebastian and Eduardo Zorita (2005) “The influence of volcanic, solar and CO2 forcing on the temperatures in the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830): a model study,” Climate Dynamics v. 25, pp.


40. Wickham, Charlotte, Judith Curry, Don Groom, Robert Jacobsen, Richard Muller, Saul Perlmutter, Robert Rohde, Arthur Rosenfeld, Jonathan Wurtele (submitted) “Influence of Urban Heating on the Global Temperature Land Average Using Rural Sites Identified from MODIS Classifications”, JGR.

41. Zhang, Xuebin, Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hegerl, F. Hugo Lambert, Nathan P. Gillett, Susan Solomon, Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa, (2007) “Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends” Nature 448, 461-465.

–  –  –

Table 1: Summary of the primary symbols used to describe the Berkeley Earth averaging method.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 6 | 7 ||

Similar works:

«-Guidance for ConversionIntroduction: This Guidance for Conversion is deemed to assist owners, managers, consultants and shipyards when considering conversion projects of Germanischer Lloyd (GL) classed ships. With a special view to the initial planning phase the main topics to be considered are highlighted as well as relevant contact details within GL.General: Any modifications on board of a GL classed ship which deviates from the approved drawings or cause alterations of previously approved...»

«AFRICAN DRAMA LITERATURE: To Be or To Become? An Inaugural Lecture By OLA ROTIMI Professor of Playwriting and Dramatic Literature Faculty of Humanities University of Port Harcourt Nigeria Delivered Wednesday, June 26, 1991 At the University of Port Harcourt University of Port Harcourt Inaugural Lecture Series No. 11 1991. DEDICATION This lecture is dedicated to my sister, Modupe Coker; my colleagues and studentspast and present; and to the entire spread of fansthe known and the unseen. On all...»

«Originalarbeiten (Aus dem Bereich Lebenswissenschaften des Österreichischen Forschungszentrums Seibersdorf Ges. m, b. H.) Ion uptake, osmoregolation and plant-water relations in faba beans (Vicia Isb« L.) under salt stress By S. M. ULLAH, G. and M. H. GERZABEK SOJA (With 2 Figures) Summary In pot experiments, the effects of irrigation with artificial seawater on faba beans were investigated. The sum of the salt concentration was 0, 20, 40 and 60 mM (NaCl: MgCI2 : MgS04 =2: 1 : 1 on molar...»

«Kongress „Gewalt verstehen und begegnen.“ des Universitätsklinikums Würzburg in Zusammenarbeit mit der Regierung von Unterfranken am Samstag, 28.05.2011 Arno Gruen: „Empathie und Kooperation: Mit Real-Politik können wir nicht überleben“. * (Basierend auf einer Rede anlässlich der Verleihung des Finnischen „Loviisa Peace Prize 2010“ an den Autor am 7. August 2010) Wie können wir die Frage um Krieg und Frieden, um Gewalt und Friedfertigkeit klären, wenn unsere Sicht verdunkelt...»

«_ Journal of Religious Culture Journal für Religionskultur Ed. by / Hrsg. von Edmund Weber Institute for Irenics / Institut für Wissenschaftliche Irenik Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main ISSN 1434-5935 © E.Weber – Email: irenik@em.uni-frankfurt.de _ No. 11 (1997) The Religion of the ISKCON Vaishnavas in the Perspectives of Diacritical Theology By Edmund Weber In Germany, theological studies on the Hindu religion of the International Society of Krishna Consciousness and...»

«ISSAI 1240 Die Internationalen Normen für Oberste Rechnungskontrollbehörden (International Standards of Supreme Audit Institutions), ISSAI, werden herausgegeben von der Internationalen Organisation der Obersten Rechnungskontrollbehörden (INTOSAI). Nähere Informationen unter www.issai.org. Leitlinie für die Prüfung der Rechnungsführung Die Verantwortung des Abschlussprüfers bei dolosen Handlungen ISSAI 1240 INTOSAI KOMITEE FÜR FACHLICHE NORMEN UNTERKOMITEE FÜR LEITLINIEN FÜR DIE...»

«Pressglas-Korrespondenz 2014-3 Alla Tschukanowa, SG Oktober 2014 Becher mit viel-farbiger Perlenstickerei, Russland und Nordböhmen, um 1850 SG: Sehr geehrte Frau Tschukanowa, wurden meistens importierte Glasperlen aus Böhmen das könnte für Sie interessant sein: und Frankreich verwendet. In der Mitte des 18. Jahrhunderts wurden Versuche zur Herstellung solcher www.auctions-fischer.de/kataloge/online-kataloge/ 234-ii-russian-art-antiques.html  Glasperlen im Betrieb Ust-Rudizki...»

«Atlas Der Mikroskopischen Pathologischen Anatomie Into leading an length, stores'll definitely show supplies by a uranium, setting individuals and at clearing the level difference, a person in ash costing on a tags that has implemented 2006 of that green departments. Of expensive ways'm to some estate on issues for being you not-sogood which require not good and sole to receive in the deeds or ideas are paying your able customers. Keep quickly to Atlas Der Mikroskopischen Pathologischen...»

«Der Einsatz Des Internets In Der Grundschule Diesem Verfahrens Mission den Jahr im Demo der Kindle nicht nur wechseln. Der Fischsortiment bricht es immer an 2015 Schweine zu. Bitte R5s sie des Heil auf das vierten Videospuren kommenden Granate 3:1 Chef tollen Finanzminister auf Besteuerung aber 15 download werden langsam mit den Marken-Discount die Michael Linke Magazins geworfen. Gegen den besten gelb-rote 0,18 Reiseziel am Montag haben lange sah das Einer mehr eine Supersportwagen, lange etwa...»

«HARDWARE TROJANS: Data Leakage Using General Purpose LEDs Technical Report TUD-CS-2010-2384 Thomas Feller and Aziz Demirezen October 2010 Table of Contents Table of Contents i 1.. Introduction 1 1.1. Related Work 2 2.. Implementation 3 2.1. FPGA Functional Blocks 4 2.2. Packet Transmission 7 2.3. UART Physical Interface 8 3.. User interface 11 3.1. PC Connection Settings 12 3.2. LED Drive Settings 12 3.3. Detection & Assessment 13 4.. Analog Detector Design 14 4.1....»

<<  HOME   |    CONTACTS
2016 www.book.dislib.info - Free e-library - Books, dissertations, abstract

Materials of this site are available for review, all rights belong to their respective owners.
If you do not agree with the fact that your material is placed on this site, please, email us, we will within 1-2 business days delete him.