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«Exporting Hyperinflation: The Long Arm of Chiang Kai-shek Richard C. K. Burdekin and Hsin-hui I. H. Whited* Claremont McKenna College and University ...»

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15. Our procedure differs from that of Lin and Wu (1989), however, in that they did not allow for the role of capital inflows and hence considered only a four-variable system.

16. Makinen and Woodward (1989) find that this pattern is not maintained if the sample is extended from 1949 to 1953 – in which case their results indicate no causality in either direction. An important caveat, however, is that all such causality test results, including our own, remain vulnerable to the numerous potential shifts in the underlying inflation and money growth processes over the 1948-1950 period in Taiwan (Burdekin and

–  –  –

Burdekin, Richard C. K., and Paul Burkett. “A Re-Examination of the Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure: Canada, 1963-1988.” Review of Economics and Statistics 72 (November 1990), 677-681.

Burdekin, Richard C. K., and Fang Wang. “A Novel End to China’s Big Inflation in 1950.” Economics of Planning 32 (1999), 211-229.

Burdekin, Richard C. K., and Hsin-hui I. H. Whited. “Multiple Regime Shifts and Multiple Ends of the Taiwanese Hyperinflation, 1945-1953.” Southern Economic Journal 68 (July

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Chang, Kia-Ngau. The Inflationary Spiral: The Experience in China, 1939-1950. Cambridge, Mass.: Technology Press of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1958.

Chen, Rong-Fu. Finance and Foreign Trade of Taiwan, 1895-1955. Taipei, Taiwan: San Sheng Bookstore, 1955 (in Chinese).

Chou, Shun-Hsin. The Chinese Inflation: 1937-1949. New York: Columbia University Press, 1963.

Edwards, Sebastian. Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From Despair to Hope. New York:

Oxford University Press, 1995.

Girton, Lance, and Don Roper. “A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience.” American Economic Review 67 (September 1977), 537Hsia, Ronald. Price Control in Communist China. New York: Institute of Pacific Relations, 1953.

Laney, Leroy O. and Thomas D. Willett. “The International Liquidity Explosion and Worldwide Inflation: The Evidence from Sterilization Coefficient Estimates.” Journal of International Money and Finance 1 (August 1982), 141-52.

Li, Yitang, and Tsong-Min Wu. “U.S. Aid and the End of Taiwan’s Big Inflation.” Mimeo, National Tsing Hua University, Hsin Chu, Taiwan, October 13, 1997.

Lin, Kenneth S., and Tsong-Min Wu. “Taiwan’s Big Inflation: 1946-1949.” In The Second Conference on Modern Chinese Economic History (III), pp. 917-49. Taipei, Taiwan: The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, January 5-7, 1989.

Liu, Fu-Chi. Studies in Monetary Development of Taiwan. Taipei, Taiwan: Academia Sinica,

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Makinen, Gail E., and G. Thomas Woodward. “The Taiwanese Hyperinflation and Stabilization of 1945-1952.” Journal of Money Credit, and Banking 21 (February 1989), 90-105.

Quddus, Munir, Jin-Tan Liu, and John S. Butler. “Money, Prices, and Causality: The Chinese Hyperinflation, 1946-1949, Reexamined.” Journal of Macroeconomics 11 (Summer 1989), 447-53.

Sargent, Thomas J., and Neil Wallace. “Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation.” International Economic Review 14 (June 1973), 328-50.

Schwartz, Anna J. “The Postwar Institutional Evolution of the International Monetary System.” In Michael R. Darby, James R. Lothian and Arthur E. Gandolfi, Anna J. Schwartz, and

Alan C. Stockman, The International Transmission of Inflation, pp. 14-45. Chicago:

University of Chicago Press, 1983.

Tang, De-Piao, and Teh-Wei Hu. “Money, Prices, and Causality: The Chinese Hyperinflation, 1946-1949.” Journal of Macroeconomics 5 (Fall 1983), 503-10.

US Department of State. United States Relations with China, With Special Reference to the Period 1944-1949. Washington, DC: Department of State Publication 3573, Far Eastern

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1936-37 1,894 1,972 -78 1,410 1937-38 2,091 815 1,276 1,730 1939 2,797 740 2,057 4,290 1940 5,288 1,325 3,963 7,870 1941 10,003 1,310 8,693 15,100 1942 24,511 5,630 18,881 34,400 1943 58,816 20,403 38,413 75,400 1944 171,689 38,503 133,186 189,500 1945 2,348,085 1,241,389 1,106,696 1,031,900 1946 7,574,790 2,876,988 4,697,802 3,726,100 1947 43,393,895 14,064,383 29,329,512 33,188,500

–  –  –

Notes: All numbers are given in millions of fapi Data from August 1948 on have been converted by applying the official 3 million to 1 exchange rate between fapi and the gold yuan Note issues outstanding are end of period values.

Source: Chang (1958, pp. 16, 40, 51, 71, 84, 124, 168), Wu (1958, p. 122) and authors’ calculations.

TABLE 2: Regression Results for Taiwanese Inflation and Taiwanese Money Growth

–  –  –

Notes:

The numbers in parentheses after the independent variables denote the lag order (if any), ***, **,* and # denote significance at the 1%, 5%, 10% and 11% levels, respectively, t-statistics are listed in parentheses below each coefficient, GMM denotes Generalized Method of Moments and 2SLS denotes Two-Stage Least Squares, J-Statistic is a goodness of fit diagnostic for GMM regressions for which R2 s and F-Statistics cannot be computed (the lower the value of the J-Statistic the better the fit), and the Chow Breakpoint Test is for a hypothesized structural break at the time of the monetary reform in August 1948.

TABLE 3: Regression Results for Capital Inflows into Taiwan from Mainland China

–  –  –

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Notes:

Inflation Differential is the difference between the inflation rate for mainland China and the Taiwanese inflation rate, and Money Growth Differential is the difference between the money growth rate in mainland China and the Taiwanese money growth rate.

(See also the explanatory Notes to Table 2.) TABLE 4: Granger-Causality Tests on the Five Variable System Causal Relationship Tested Chi-Squared Statistic ____________________________________________________________________________________________

–  –  –

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Notes:

***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively, the figures in brackets are the exact significance levels (P-values), and two autoregressive terms have been included in each regression to correct for serial correlation.

Taiwan Index Level

–  –  –

-4

-4

-4

-4

–  –  –

-5

-10

-15

-20



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