«9. wissenschaftliche Jahrestagung der Keynes-Gesellschaft Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin WZB Berlin, 18.-19. Februar 2013 vorläufige und ...»
Keynestagung 2013, 18.-19.01.2013 Barens/Caspari Keynes‘ Ansichten zur Inflation Folie 19 (2) During the war inflation is serviceable only in so far as there is a time-lag between wages and prices. That is how it worked in the last war with prices always about 15 per cent ahead of wage rates, and this figure is about the magnitude of what we should require this time. Inflation pays for the war only if it operates as the equivalent of a flat percentage tax on wages. It is, perhaps, a comfort that it is always there (subject to what follows) to fall back on, if, rejecting juster and wiser alternatives, we let our finances drift. The active capitalist, it will be noticed, wins all along the line, at the expense of wage earners during the transition and at the expense of bondholders afterwards; though he will presumably have to surrender the major part of his initial gains to the tax-gatherer.
Keynestagung 2013, 18.-19.01.2013 Barens/Caspari Keynes‘ Ansichten zur Inflation Folie 20 (3) But even in this ointment there is a big fly. In modern conditions will the time-lag be long enough to do the trick? In the last war it was of the order of six months to a year which is long enough to allow us to collect the gains without a galloping inflation (see my How to Pay for the War, p. 71 [JMK, vol. IX, p. 423], for the details). But can we reckon on this today? I doubt it. Everyone, including the trade unions, has become indexnumber conscious. Wages will pursue prices with not so lame a foot. And this new fact means that the old-type laissez-faire inflation is no longer to be relied upon.
Keynestagung 2013, 18.-19.01.2013 Barens/Caspari Keynes‘ Ansichten zur Inflation Folie 21 (4) The only practicable version today is to fix wages by decree as in Russia and Germany and also in France; and then allow prices to rise to the appropriate extent which I estimate at not above 15 per cent in present circumstances. A very gentlemanly programme, take it all in all. Yet perhaps it is my alternative proposal, in spite of its apparent respectability, which deserve the confidence of the wage earner.”
Keynestagung 2013, 18.-19.01.2013 Barens/Caspari Keynes‘ Ansichten zur Inflation Folie 22 07 Fazit Stetes Bemühen um eine rationale und nachhaltige monetäre Verfassung (bereits seit Indian Finance) Ablehnung der wirtschaftspolitischen Nutzung von Inflation wegen Erosion der Schuldner-Gläubiger-Beziehungen (als Fundament der kapitalistischer Produktionsweise) negativer, willkürlicher und damit ungerechter Wirkungen auf Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung
Erhöhung der Unsicherheit von in die Zukunft gerichteter Unternehmerentscheidungen Inflation für Keynes kein Instrument sondern ein Problem der Wirtschaftspolitik !
Keynestagung 2013, 18.-19.01.2013 Barens/Caspari Keynes‘ Ansichten zur Inflation Folie 23